Big 12 Week 10

[lynchmob42]

Oklahoma @ Iowa State
ISU is tough at home. This would have been a lot more interesting, in my estimation, if OU hadn't lost last week. That is, I think OU will be sharp throughout in this game, and will dispatch the 'Clones.

TCU @ WVU
It's been four weeks since WVU last won a game. I think they're a mess psychologically. Two defensive stops in the first half by TCU, and WVU may just pack it in, again.

Kansas @ Baylor
The good news is that someone has to win. I like the improvement coming from the Jayhawks. If Weis is smart enough to stick with his running game, KU wins!

Texas @ Texas Tech
Tech should absolutely light up the scoreboard, here. I'm not sure what the record is, but Tech may experience their biggest margin of victory over the 'Horns, ever.

Oklahoma State @ Kansas State
Now to the game that matters, and the one that has my stomach in knots. The biggest difficulty here is figuring out what is OSU. They're 5-2, but they've not beaten anybody good. They've got some great stats, especially offensively, but those stats aren't nearly as gaudy when you take out the Savannah State game. They struggled at Kansas, but handled ISU. I'll hang my hat on the fact that they're playing a true freshman QB in his first conference road game, and the Cowboys have been bad in their only two road games this season. K-State has been amazing at not turning the ball over in conference play. As long as they don't find themselves (-2) in the TO margin on Saturday, the 'Cats should win.

[architechguy]

OU is too strong for Iowa State. They're a pesky team and capable of pulling the upset, but OU bounces back.

Baylor is too much offense for Kansas, and Kansas doesn't have the ammo for the gunfight.

West Virginia should show whatever resiliency they have this week. TCU is really starting to understand the grind of major conference football. Week after week after week, you play a team that can light you up.

Texas still scares me for two reasons, A) Tech's rushing D has really come back down to Earth the last two weeks, and B) Tech's turnover ratio is a liability, we just don't force enough turnovers to either offset our own or put the other team in a bind. If Tech plays error free on offense, then a blowout is possible because it forces Texas out of the preferred run game and into a shootout they don't want to be in. If Tech can get ahead early, they can run away with the game.

Much like last week, I think Kansas State snags a few crushing turnovers on Oklahoma State and turns a tight game into a runaway. Once KSU gets a lead and Klein starts methodically squeezing out 7, 8, 9 yard runs over and over, the game is lost. Oklahoma State is dangerous, but they're young and KSU is playing at a different level. They'll make zero mistakes and force OSU into a few too many.

[lynchmob42]

More on K-State. I've read OSU fans, and others, say that K-State is due for a game that they don't play perfectly. Archi said K-State will make zero mistakes.

I think there's a misconception that EVERYTHING is going K-State's way, and the results are somehow misleading. I don't buy it. Now, K-State was nearly perfect at WVU, but definitely wasn't against others like TTU.

I think it takes multiple big mistakes, like -2 or worse in turnovers, for K-State to lose one of its final four games.

[architechguy]

I don't think Kansas State is getting lucky at all. There's a difference in playing perfect and playing mistake free. Perfect is flawless, it's winning every 50/50 battle, every man to man matchup, a thorough win from start to finish. Perfect is what you'd see in a non-conference matchup against an overmatched opponent. Mistake free is simply not beating yourself, making the other team earn their yards and points. No dumb penalties, no turnovers, disciplined coverage and assignments, etc. That's how KSU plays, they don't extend your drives with penalties, they don't turn over the ball with risky plays, they play field position and make you go the length of the field for points, etc. That's not luck, that's clean and smart football.

You can beat teams like that, first by playing the exact same way and second by trusting your playmakers to make more plays than theirs. KSU is very good at the first, beatable in the second. However, nobody this year has been able to get passed the first step against KSU because they're so good at forcing you into it. First team that can do it has a good chance to take them down, but it's asking a lot of a young team like OSU with an inexperienced QB to do that.

[architechguy]

Going back to the Tech-Texas game...

This game should speak volumes about what kind of team Tech is (today and the future). The Cotton Bowl is still within reach, a 10 win season is still within reach. Last week was a very humbling loss, but it shouldn't wreck Tech's confidence. A win over Texas still means a ton, even in a down year, and sends a message to the conference that this team can win consistently rather than pull the random upset.

A loss in this game would really give back so much of the momentum Tech has built up so far this season. If Tech wants to go to a real bowl game and play a real team, we need to win this game. There's a good chance we could play A&M in the Cotton Bowl, or USC in the Alamo Bowl. There's also a chance we go to the Insignificant.com Bowl and play a Sun Belt team.

There's also the factor that every Tech fan is probably thinking already, if we can't beat Texas in a bad year, how could we ever beat them in a good year? This is a swing game for both teams, Tech needs to make a statement.

And on a side note, I wonder how many Texas fans out there are secretly hoping Tech lays the lumber on them this weekend so that Mack Brown will finally get taken out to pasture.

[lynchmob42]

Nov 1, 2012 14:55:52 GMT -5 architechguy said:

That's how KSU plays, they don't extend your drives with penalties,

Maybe it's the exception that proves the rule.... but that's exactly what happened on Tech's opening scoring drive. On offsides penalty on 3rd down that extended the drive.

[architechguy]

I think that play only made it 3rd and 5 instead of 3rd and 10. Pretty harmless in the big picture. The penalties that are really rough are the defensive holdings, PI, etc, the ones defenders only commit when they're beaten and don't want to get beaten really bad.

One more note on the Tech-Texas game, the quickly growing bandwagon for Tech is really making me nervous. The line opened at 2.5 for Tech and promptly moved to 7.5. Meaning Vegas really thinks the teams are pretty even, but the public is really down on Texas! I raise an eyebrow whenever public opinion sways too far in one direction, it's usually a sign the opposite is about to happen. Texas isn't as bad and Tech isn't as good as people are making them out to be, I'm really getting nervous about this one!

[lynchmob42]

When a line crosses a 3, 7, 10, 14 point threshold it's a big deal. To cross two of them is huge. I think tech is 10 points better, but that kind of line movement would worry me, too.

[architechguy]

I'm surprised Vegas let the line move that far. I would think they'd take it off the board before letting the line move like that.

This makes me nervous about the game from a completely non-gambling angle. It's the public perception of the two teams that I worry about, both teams have the exact same record and very similar stat lines but are viewed entirely differently in the public. That's for fair reason, Texas was supposed to be good and Tech wasn't. The results are pretty equal though, and one team is an overachieving success story while the other is a walking train wreck. You have to assume that both teams are hearing all the criticisms and all the praises of each team, so that leads me to think Texas will have a major chip on their shoulder and play with pride this week.

[lynchmob42]

They have the same record, but Texas has played Kansas, Tech has played Oklahoma.

[lynchmob42]

Did you know that K-State has only had 86 offensive possessions this season, second least in FBS? Yet the 'Cats are 5th in FBS in scoring per game? K-State has scored TDs on 42 of those 86 possessions.

K-State leads the nation in TDs per possession, TDs per play and TD percentage.

[architechguy]

I'd say the difference is Texas has played Kansas, Tech has played Kansas State. We both got beat bad by OU. Our only other common opponent is West Virginia, that's a difficult comparison though because WV has been bipolar lately.

The rest of the results are pretty similar. Points per game on offense and defense are close (though we had one OT game to skew the stats). Statistically, the difference between the defenses has been Texas giving up WAY more yards per game than Tech, but also getting way more turnovers and sacks.

So there's the game in a nutshell, Tech's is great at moving the ball (Texas weakness) but bad at giving the ball up (Texas strength). So which one gives, does Texas get off the field or does Tech give up the ball?

[architechguy]

So far, my fears have come true in this game. Texas leads 24-13 at halftime. They've hit two long td passes and Tech has made drive killing mistakes and settled for field goals. Ere just seems to be way more urgency for Texas than there is for Tech.

Neal Brown's play calling for Tech has been suspect too. He's called several run plays in long yardage situations that's left fans scratching their heads. There's been more than a few boos coming down from the stands. It's still a game though, the defense weathered the early storm, but both sides have to pick it up.

[architechguy]

Dammit! Will somebody please give Tommy Tuberville a copy of the 2 pt conversion handbook. Going for two in the third quarter lost the game. We end up losing by 9 when it could've been a one possession game where we could tie the game at the end instead of having to kick a field goal (which was blocked).

I knew this was going to happen. This was Texas' most inspired performance of the season, if they'd play like this more often they'd be a contender. They have the talent, they just can't keep it together. Same story as always for Tech. Another game against Texas where we just couldn't make that one play, had one bad penalty or one bad break.

[longhorn99]

Beating Tech as an underdog is special. Tech has played 5 ranked opponents straight so I would cut that team some slack. Doege is great but TD's beat FG's today.