The topic that refuses to die...

[architechguy]

conference realignment is back! Maryland has reportedly voted to leave the ACC for the Big Ten. Rutgers will most likely follow. That means the ACC's new $50 million exit fee isn't too ironclad afterall. What's the fallout from this? Could Florida State pick the phone back and start making more calls?

And let's talk about Florida State for a second, they're in the same position as KSU. They have just one loss too and cannot get any credit for their record, they're buried behind SEC teams with worse records. They're about to be snubbed just like KSU. Wouldn't a Big 12 Championship game between KSU and FSU hit the spot right about now? Wouldn't both of those teams love a chance to play their way into the national championship? Also, the coming playoff wouldn't be open to them either, they're both currently outside the top 4 and not likely to get in the top 4 in the next two weeks without major help. I've said all season long that the 9 game conference schedule with no conference championship game is NOT an advantage. It wasn't last year and is not this year.

With one team leaving the ACC, there will be more shuffling. Our conference needs football legitimacy, and there are teams out there that can give it to us. We need to go get them.

[Mohawk]

What it's really going to come down to is can we get bigger TV deals with the addition of some teams. If the answer is yes, it will probably happen. If the answer is no, and we have to divide up the same money 12 ways then it probably will not happen.

[architechguy]

I think there's more to it than just money. There is a legitimate doubt about the Big 12's viability as a ten team league. If our league cannot generate enough clout to get our conference champion into the BCS or future playoff, then we have a severe problem... regardless of the money.

I believe the money will be in our favor regardless. As I recall, the latest TV agreements the Big 12 signed had contingencies for conference expansion. As long as we add a team with actual value (ie, schools named after states instead of cities), then the money will go up.

[Mohawk]

More chatter. This article makes it seems like change is imminent. According to this article the thing that saved this conference last year (the grant of rights deal) is now keeping other potential schools away.


www.eersauthority.com/expansion-update-acc-on-the-brink/

[architechguy]

I think things are moving slow because everyone has to move carefully and deliberately with each step. As we saw with Baylor, a massive move at once by multiple teams will likely lead to lawsuits, so we get a bunch of tiny moves. It's death by a thousand paper cuts.

One interesting possibility is that the western teams that just joined the Big East (Boise, Sand Diego State, etc) might go back to the MWC. That could open up the idea of the ACC and Big East just merging when all the football playing schools go somewhere else.

[architechguy]

[cynicalpuppet]

ROFL archi

[longhorn99]

Looks like ACC plucked Louisville. While Louisville is a good sports school, it doesn't seem to match the academic profile of the traditional ACC. But I guess it's not the traditional ACC anymore! What does that mean for the Big12? Without at least one more great football school to be their partner, Louisville to me did not look like perfect addition to the Big12. I still think it would be better if we expand but it would be nice to get some good football schools. It's sad however that Big12 is not the top choice of schools but it's possible that they have to "settle" for us. Due to the GOR, we are all tied together now so it would have additions rather than defections.

[cynicalpuppet]

I want 12 teams again and a Big XII CG.

[architechguy]

You're right, there are no great candidates for expansion right now. However, we have gone from 6 power conferences to 5, so expansion doesn't have to happen from "available" teams only. It'll be interesting to see how Maryland gets around the $50 million exit fee. If they're able to get out of that for cheap, then I think others leave too.

We need to expand, badly. This 9 game round robin sounds good in theory, but it leads to more parity in the standings. We're close to having 5 teams in the conference with 7-5 records. With an 8 game conference schedule, all of those teams would have 1 more win and one less loss. 7-5 teams don't get ranked in the polls, and our contenders need the teams they beat to stay ranked so their résumé holds up against other conferences. The full round robin schedule was a good idea at the time. It was a stop gap for the tv networks and kept the conference together, but it cannot be permanent or our teams will never get any credit nationally.

[longhorn99]

Right an extra conference game definitely puts middle of the pack teams at a disadvantage. A truly elite team most likely makes it to the NC game if it remains unscathed while playing a tough schedule. You have to play the best to beat the best and a tough conference prepares their team better for the game at the highest level. With the playoffs coming up in a couple of years, there are still a lot of unknowns. A round-robin schedule seems fair in terms of opportunities for every team to play in Texas and improve their recruiting. But I also prefer a CCG just because of the excitement factor and the fact that we're the only power conference without one.

One thing that I read somewhere was that PAC 10 kind of messed up their expansion by saying no to the OU/OSU package or the OU/OSU/Tech/Texas + LHN package. I just don't see how they can do better than that, if the time comes to expand to 16 and the Big 12 options gone due to the GOR.

[architechguy]

I agree, the PAC 12 missed their chance to expand. Their only options are lesser brand name teams.

Disagree about the contenders. They need the teams they beat in the conference to stay as highly ranked as possible. You don't want all those teams beating each other up after you beat them, that lessens the value of your win. Look at the SEC, they have 6 teams in the top ten, then not a single ranked team among their other 8. Why is that? They play a couple games against each other, then the rest of their games against the slum dwellers of their league. So they split their games against each other, but all stay highly ranked because they don't play anybody else. That's the formula for getting teams in the national championship race.

[cynicalpuppet]

I think the Big XII will have to expand towards TV Markets instead of good tv teams. That said, I have no idea who those teams would be.

[architechguy]

The Big 12 would only get more money if they get to renegotiate TV contracts. We have no vested ownership in any TV network, we only get the annual check from Fox and ESPN. I've heard rumors that there's a clause in the TV deal that says there's a renegotiation if we get to 14 teams. So four teams would have to net us an additional $80 million per year just to break even on the expansion. That would just pay for the new mouths to feed, I don't know how much more than 80 mil it would have to be to make the expansion worth while. If it doesn't raise everybody's payout by $4-5 million apiece, then what's the point in expanding? That would take another $50 to $70 million on top of the 80 to make that happen. So the question is, are there four teams out there who could bring us a $150 million pay raise? Considering our current annual pay rate is only $200 mil, we would need four teams to account for a 75% raise.

Here's another way to look at. Four extra teams dramatically increases our TV inventory to sell. With 10 teams, we have 45 conference games to sell to the networks, that's 4.45 million per game at our current rate. At 14 teams with the pay we'd demand, we'd have 56 or 63 games to sell (depending on 8 or 9 game schedule), that would be either 5.55 mil per game or 6.25 mil per game. So we need four teams who are attractive and appealing enough to viewers so that the networks would pay us an additional 1.5 million per game.

My conclusion is that we need quality over quantity. We need four good teams, not just four good TV markets. We gotta put together a TV package that makes the networks drool.

[Mohawk]

More rumors:

www.rantsports.com/ncaa-football/2012/12/04/college-football-rumors-florida-state-headed-to-the-big-12/?wIqasfVtgvOkUg7j.99